Food price outlook: Better monsoon, sowing to cool H2FY26 inflation; adverse base could lift FY27 rates

Food inflation is expected to remain controlled in the latter half of FY26 due to favorable monsoons and sowing conditions. However, an adverse base effect could lead to higher food inflation in FY27, despite current wholesale inflation easing to a two-year low. Declines in vegetable, cereal, and pulse prices have significantly contributed to this trend.

Food price outlook: Better monsoon, sowing to cool H2FY26 inflation; adverse base could lift FY27 rates
Food inflation is expected to remain controlled in the latter half of FY26 due to favorable monsoons and sowing conditions. However, an adverse base effect could lead to higher food inflation in FY27, despite current wholesale inflation easing to a two-year low. Declines in vegetable, cereal, and pulse prices have significantly contributed to this trend.