Why Gujarat is being pushed back towards caste politics after a decade of development-centric governance

When discussing matters with journalists and political figures from outside Gujarat, one complaint is heard repeatedly: that Gujarat has not been a very “happening” state politically. To a large extent, this complaint is true. As a society, we are fundamentally peace-loving. Elections take place once every five years; there is some movement during the election period, a new government is formed, and then our focus returns to business. When the next election comes after five years, we deal with it then. This has been the pattern for the past several years.

However, this trajectory is now changing. In any case, everyone is exposed in the same bathhouse, but in all of this, a significant role is being played by the opposition and its ecosystem. After being out of power for three decades, this now appears to be the only remaining route for them to reach power.

In some states, caste politics still dominates. Even there, however, the influence of caste-based politics is gradually declining, while other issues are gaining importance. The equations are slowly changing. Gujarat, on the other hand, has recently begun moving in the opposite direction or rather, systematic and well-planned efforts are underway to push it in that opposite direction.

Historically, Gujarat has seen such phases before. A reading of history reminds us of Madhavsinh’s well-known “KHAM” theory. Until 2001, such politics continued. But after Narendra Modi came to power, caste began to recede from the centre of politics, and development, the economy, and governance moved to the forefront. One reason for Gujarat’s transformation during Modi’s 13 years of historic governance was precisely this shift. Modi understood that results come only when attention is diverted away from divisive issues and focused squarely on what needs to be done. When the government and society are focused on a single pitch, the opposition—whether it wants to or not—is forced to play on that same pitch and cannot easily derail the agenda.

After Modi left Gujarat in 2014, there was a constant search for opportunities to play on a different pitch. Following the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a phase of agitations began in Gujarat as early as 2015, with communities and castes at the centre. What began as movements around social issues soon took on additional dimensions, and ultimately led to what such agitations usually result in: instability and risk for the government. Anandiben Patel had to resign, and a new government was formed under the leadership of Vijay Rupani.

This government too faced multiple challenges. Caste-based politics was still dominant. Two years later came the 2017 Assembly elections, in which the BJP missed being ousted from power by just seven seats. It managed to retain power with 99 seats, but the situation was far from comfortable. For the first time in two decades, the opposition was closest to capturing power.

The BJP retained power with 99 seats, but its grip was not firm. Ever since instability and disorder were injected into the state in 2015 by pushing various communities to the forefront, a difficult phase had begun for the government. The consequences were felt in 2017. It would not be an exaggeration to say that had the 2017 results been different, the situation at the Centre might also have been different—but that is now a matter of speculation.

After the 2017 results, the BJP regrouped and began working afresh, steadily strengthening itself. On the other hand, the Congress became completely weakened, and the kind of intense manoeuvring seen before 2017 largely came to an end. This atmosphere continued until 2022. Learning from past experiences, the BJP recalibrated its equations; several other factors also played a role, and the 2022 elections produced a result unprecedented in scale. The BJP won 156 seats, a number that has since risen to 162 out of a total of 182 seats.

Following this historic return in 2022, a fresh, organised effort has once again begun, centred on the same agenda: to somehow push Gujarat back into a 2015-like situation. To once again foreground caste, and to once again create dissatisfaction among communities by any means necessary.

If one observes carefully, this pattern has been visible in Gujarat for quite some time now. Whenever an issue becomes, or is made into, a statewide issue, it is immediately given a caste overlay. Leaders of particular communities are brought forward. Once someone is recognised as a leader, the urge to remain in the spotlight and to demonstrate that they are “fighting for the community” is a natural human tendency. In that sense, the fault does not lie entirely with these individuals. But eventually, the entire community has to bear the consequences. Such leaders leap into action, politics gets mixed in, and ultimately the entire environment is destabilised.

If caste itself is the subject of an issue, that is one thing. But even in matters where caste has no relevance whatsoever, this angle is deliberately inserted. A few days ago, in the dispute between the Ambaji Temple Trust and the royal family, the High Court delivered a verdict ending the royal family’s special worship rights during Navratri. Even in this case, attempts were made on social media in some quarters to give the issue a caste colour. Recently, an attack on a sarpanch in Bagdana in Saurashtra was also turned into a situation where two castes were pitted against each other.

In Surendranagar, when a land scam was exposed and a collector was arrested, the ED’s action was linked to the officer’s caste. Even relatively trivial matters such as marriages or love marriages have been blown up into statewide issues and infused with community angles. Similar attempts were seen recently in some matters in Gondal as well.

Issues related to society and caste require governments and political parties to tread very carefully. But in Gujarat, whatever there is to lose will be lost by the ruling party. The opposition has nothing left to lose. That is precisely why they repeatedly attempt to fan such issues whenever possible.

The opposition and its ecosystem know that on issues such as development, education, and healthcare, defeating the BJP in Gujarat over the next ten years is virtually impossible. In these circumstances, this final route remains open to them: doing politics by foregrounding communities. That is why caste is injected into every issue, and sustained efforts are made to keep matters inflamed at any cost.

As explained in detail earlier in a series of articles, YouTuber-journalists, so-called influencers, and the entire ecosystem remain constantly engaged in creating this environment. One way or another, news is framed with a focus on castes. One way or another, we are drawn into debating these issues. Debate in itself is not a problem, but it is essential to remain aware of the consequences and adverse outcomes. Because much more of this is coming between now and 2027.