Chaos in Iran: US-backed protests and Shah’s shadow may reshape Afghanistan and hand Pakistan leverage at India’s cost

Iran is witnessing one of its most intense waves of unrest in nearly three years, with protests spreading rapidly across cities and provinces. Videos circulating on social media show massive crowds chanting anti-regime slogans, clashing with security forces, and targeting symbols of state authority. One widely shared clip shows one of Iran’s largest mosques engulfed in flames, becoming a powerful symbol of public anger. With the internet down and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. According to a report by CNN, US-based Human Rights Activists News Agecy claimed that the death toll in the protests has grown to at least 72 people killed and over 2,300 others detained. Iranian state TV is reporting on security force casualties while portraying control over the nation. The protests reportedly began on 3rd January, triggered by rising prices, unemployment, and economic hardship. However, the anger quickly moved beyond economic issues. Protesters are openly calling for an end to Iran’s clerical system that has ruled the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Slogans demanding regime change have been heard across Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz, and smaller towns as well. The exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Reza Pahlavi, who has emerged as a prominent voice in the fragmented opposition, made his strongest call yet for the protests to broaden into a revolt to topple the clerical rulers. “Our goal is no longer just to take to the streets. The goal is to prepare to seize and hold city centres,” he said in a video message on social media. Iranian rights activist Masih Alinejad shared the mosque video on X, calling the unrest “47 years of rage.” According to her, religious institutions have long been used as tools of repression, not faith. The message resonated widely among protesters who see the regime as disconnected from everyday life. One of Iran’s biggest mosques burned during uprising.Don’t panic. This isn’t chaos.It’s 47 years of rage.For 47 years, after every Allahu Akbar from these minarets, innocent Iranians were executed by an Islamist regime. pic.twitter.com/oHtMpPjHQA— Masih Alinejad (@AlinejadMasih) January 10, 2026 According to the Institute for the Study of War, at least 116 protests across 22 provinces have been recorded since 8th January. In response, the Iranian government has imposed a near-total internet shutdown to stop coordination and prevent images from reaching the outside world. MORE: @criticalthreats and ISW have recorded 116 protests across 22 provinces since 3:30 PM ET on January 8. Twenty of these protests were large protests, which CTP-ISW defines as protests with more than 1,000 participants. CTP-ISW’s protest data since its last data cutoff likely… https://t.co/twjrrmP046 pic.twitter.com/4eFZgEGq9W— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 10, 2026 Iranian security forces dig in As protests intensified, Iran’s Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved quickly to assert control. In statements broadcast on state television, both institutions declared security a “red line” and warned that continued unrest would not be tolerated. The IRGC claimed that “terrorist groups” backed by foreign powers were attacking military and police installations. It said several security personnel and civilians had been killed, and public property had been damaged over the last two nights. The Army echoed this message, pledging to protect strategic infrastructure and accusing enemies such as Israel and unnamed hostile groups of exploiting unrest. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged Trump to “focus on his own country” and blamed the US for inciting the protests. According to him, the aim was not reform but destabilisation and regime change. Why Tehran says the protests are US-backed Iran’s Supreme Leader has made it clear that it sees the unrest as part of a larger Western plan. This view gained traction after strong statements from Washington. US President Donald Trump openly warned Iranian authorities against using force on protesters. “Iran’s in big trouble,” Trump said on Saturday, 9th January, claiming people were taking over cities “nobody thought possible.” His warning was blunt: “You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting too.” Soon after, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared American support for Iranian protesters, saying, “The United States supports the brave people of Iran.” For Tehran, this removed any doubt that Washington was backing the unrest. The United States supports the brave people of Iran— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) January 10, 2026 From Iran’s perspective, this fits a familiar pattern. The US has long sought regime change in Tehran and has never hidden its preference for a pro-Western government, similar to the Shah’s rule before 1979. Iranian leaders argue that social media amplification, sanctions pressure, and